there are still two years, the economic future of the Turkey seemed bright, providing to the countries of the pull up to make it finally a true emerging power. An advantage that the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan intended to use in its relations with the european Union in particular, to support the candidacy of Ankara at the entrance on the single market. But the political instability is growing, the authoritarian drift of the president, the fall of the Turkish lira and inflation will no longer inspire the investors. On 23 January, in Ankara, was even a meeting of the committee of monetary policy of the central bank to try to find a solution to the problem of money.
Turkey is wrong and she can no longer hide it. Friday, January 27, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch have down the economy and finance, and Turkish. The first has lowered the outlook of the sovereign rating of the country from “stable” to negative, while the second was downright downgraded Turkey from BBB – to BB+, class a speculative so-called ” junk “. The two rating agencies agree that the country’s political development, the unstable security and the impossibility blatant of the government to combat inflation pressures and the surge of the pound is undermining for months, the economic performance of Ankara. But also the independence of these institutions.
The authority of Erdogan, worried. The agency Standard & Poor’s has indicated that for the moment she maintained the long-term rating of Turkey at the level BB, but does not hide its fears of a drift of power to affect in the near future the performance of Ankara. She said that she was concerned about the impact on domestic policy of the attempt of the coup d’etat of 15 July, but also of the project of constitutional reform proposed by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Project which according to S&P could limit the powers of control of Parliament and justice on the policy of the government.
” We’re lowering our outlook to negative to reflect what we consider to be of the growing difficulties of political leaders to stem the tide of inflation and pressure on the currency “, so is it possible to read in a press release. For its part, Fitch added that the outlook attached to the sovereign rating of BB+ rest for the moment ” stable “. “Although the political environment is likely to stabilize, serious security problems are likely to persist “, she says for her part.
double-digit Inflation. Since the beginning of the year, the Turkish lira has lost 8 % of its value, or one of the performance-the worst recorded by the currencies of the major emerging countries. After a meeting in Ankara on January 23, his committee’s monetary policy, the Turkish central bank has raised its interest rates, but not enough to contain the decline of the pound and inflation. President Erdogan, who wants the cost of credit stays low to support the economy, has described himself as an “enemy” of the interest rate, raising fears about the independence of the central Bank.
many economists believe that the inflation is expected to reach at least 10% in the first quarter of the year 2017. Fitch also notes that the growth of turkey has sharply declined in the second half of 2016 and it is expected to grow at a rate significantly lower than the recent performance of the country. It expects an annual growth of 2.3 % between 2016 and 2018, compared to 7.1% in the period 2010-2015. The debt to Ankara is established according to the agency to 27.8 % of GDP at the end of the year 2016 and is expected to remain at this level until 2018.
(With Reuters)
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