Natural disasters are very expensive for countries that suffer the more we think. “They can lead to a downgrade of the States” , says a study by Standard & amp; Poor’s, the first of its kind conducted by the international rating agency. Accordingly, these States when they borrow in the capital markets, do so under less favorable conditions. Much more those who, in extreme cases cited by S & amp; P, have had to suffer a deterioration in their rating of more than two notches.
Of the four categories of disasters analyzed, are earthquakes, followed by hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones that threaten the solvency of most countries. Then come the storms and floods, which do less damage and are not as selective in their targets. In fact, the less wealthy countries of the world appear to be most vulnerable to natural disasters whose numbers, in the space of half a century, more than doubled.
Latin America and Caribbean frontline
The ratings of Latin American and Caribbean zone most sensitive to such threats, ahead of Asia. The Dominican Republic is leading the Top 10 on this particular registry established by S & amp; P. The risk from floods and tropical storms repeatedly cost him 2.5 points in his note. Chile pays a high price (2.4 points) its “preferred” exposure to seismic events, such as Japan (2.1 points) and Costa Rica (1.8 points). Excluding Pacific, it is the quality of the debt of Turkey that this risk falls most (1.3 points).
How can these countries mitigate the financial impact? Just making sure. Note the countries affected by the five largest earthquakes studied by S & amp experts; P would have decreased by one point, not two, if half the damage they caused were covered, they argue . Emerging and developing countries are not only those for whom the economic consequences of these disasters are the heaviest. In general, their insurance rate is also quite low.
The effect of flooding on the note states, without being negligible, is relatively small. In Europe, this factor has not played in Hungary. The effect of winter storms that regularly hit the Old Continent was not considered significant. The insurance rates in these economies is important and damage, plutôtfaibles. But this may change. These weather events “could gain in intensity due to global warming,” Moritz Kraemer considers, analyst at S & amp; P.
Natural disasters are rarely the primary cause of a note down. S & amp; P cites one case, that of the island of Grenada, devastated by a hurricane in 2004. In 2011, a month after the tsunami that hit Japan and the Fukushima disaster, very heavy to carry economically, the country’s rating was lowered to “AA-”.
Joël Cossardeaux, Les Echos
No comments:
Post a Comment