Status quo of the S & P rating of France – BFMTV.COM

The US rating agency Standard and Poor’s has opted for the status quo this Friday, June 26 She decided to maintain the rating “AA” assigned to the long-term debt of France, and the negative outlook associated with it.

“We believe the strength of French institutions and the economy continues to support the state’s credit quality,” said the agency. “We think the government probably will stay the course of its gradual and significant economic reforms, and its fiscal path,” she said.

1.3% growth in 2015

However, the outlook associated with this rating remains “negative” for Standard & Poor’s believes “there remains a risk of performance for fiscal and structural reforms.” For the agency, “the government commitment to deepen the reform process is likely to weaken as the modest cyclical economic recovery is strengthening and that the presidential elections are approaching.”

Standard and Poor’s now expects growth of gross domestic product (GDP) of France will reach about 1.3% in 2015 to stand at 1.5% per year on average from 2016 to 2018 .

“We believe that the economic recovery is primarily supported by favorable external factors, such as economic recovery in the euro area, the decline in oil prices, as well as interest rate and real effective exchange rate lower, “said the agency.

An increase in purchasing power

” Despite a very high unemployment rate, exceeding 10% in 2015 the third consecutive year, according to our estimates, “Standard and Poor’s anticipates” a gradual return in consumer confidence and a recovery in private demand. ”

This should indeed be “supported by the improvement in purchasing power resulting from low inflation and a lower tax burden on lower income,” which enable it to take “over from public demand as the engine of economic growth.”

Standard and Poor’s would likely downgrade of France “if the budget deficit did not decrease as expected” if “interest expense” of the French debt “amounted to sustainably -dessus 5% of government revenue “or” if governments failed to adopt and to implement a program of reforms aimed at sustained higher economic growth and employment in the medium term “.