Standard & Poor’s lowers rating of Angola to “B” – Young Africa

 After lowering that of Gabon, Standard & amp; Poor’s has degraded that of Angola. The rating agency involves the impact of lower crude prices on revenues, debt and the growth rate of the economy.

In the same causes the same effects … This seems to be the approach taken by the Standard & amp rating agency; Poor’s in its assessment of the African oil countries

A little less than two weeks after falling to ‘B’ sovereign rating of long-term Gabon, S & amp;. P also just degrade that of Angola, making it also toggle a notch at to bring it to the level of Libreville (B).

the two African oil countries saw their ratings lowered two levels in a year of “BB-” to “B” just two notches above the category ‘CCC’, reserved for bonds with “substantial risks”.

projections

In its report published on 12 February, Standard & amp; Poor’s writes: “The downgrade reflects our opinion that lower average oil price provided alter our projections that involve flows and currency stocks of Angola, the public debt and the pace of economic growth into account of the country’s dependence on the oil sector. ” Oil repésente two-thirds of government revenue and 90% of export earnings of Angola, said S & amp; P

The US credit rating agency now expects oil prices to 40 dollars. 2016, $ 45 in 2017 and 50 dollars in 2018, against 55 dollars, 65 dollars and 75 dollars previously. The Agency has therefore revised down its growth forecast for Angola, to 3.3% in 2016. This growth rate was 3.5% in 2015 and 4.7% in 2014.

5 to 30% of public debt

the deficit of the current account balance is expected to be 7% between 2016 and 2019. It should be financed from the foreign exchange reserves of the country by foreign borrowing (Angola issued in November 2015 its first eurobond – $ 1.5 billion over 10 years) and the transfer of assets abroad. Net public debt should expect about 33% of GDP over this period estimated S & amp; P reminiscent it was less than 5% of GDP there just three years

A result partly. the depreciation of the Angolan currency, the kwanza, which fell 30% in one year, while half of the country’s debt is denominated in foreign currency.

the public deficit, according to its forecasts expected to reach 5.5% of GDP this year before declining gradually to 2% in 2019. in 2012, the country recorded a budget surplus of 6.1% of GDP.

“the stable outlook assigned to the notes of Angola reflects our view that the current account deficit will gradually decline in the medium term, reducing the risk of external financing, in addition to the government’s political efforts to limit the budgetary deterioration and debt ” wrote Standard & amp; Poor’s. However, the rating agency warned, “the deterioration of the political and institutional environment of Angola could lead to downward revision” of the sovereign rating of the country

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