The sovereign rating of the country is maintained at “B-”, but with past of “stable” outlook to “negative”. At issue: the decline in foreign exchange reserves, rising current account deficits … and the electoral uncertainties.
The rating agency Standard & amp <- aside article normal or folder -> ; Poor’s (S & amp; P) lowered the outlook of the sovereign rating of the Democratic Republic of Congo, went from “stable” to “negative”. sovereign credit ratings remained at “B-” long-term and ‘B’ short-term.
In a statement released Tuesday, the agency says this decision taken on February 5 by an increase the “vulnerabilities DRC vis-à-vis the outside world”
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S & amp;. P remark and the foreign exchange reserves countries have “reached a low of $ 1.2 billion December 31, 2015, which corresponds to approximately one month of current payments.”
According to IMF figures, these reserves were 1.695 billion dollars late 2013 and 1.577 billion in 2014.
the decline in foreign exchange reserves and a widening current account deficit (expected to average 9.5% of GDP in 2016-2019) fall “in the wake of falling copper prices,” says S & amp; P, which deplored “dependency” of the DRC to the ore which is its main export resource
L. the agency now expects copper prices to 4600 dollars per ton in 2016 against the level of 6000 dollars per tonne for 2016-2017 as it was still awaiting them in August 2015. His course was of the order of 10 000 per ton in 2011 …
copper price evolution since 2011
Evolution of the price of a tonne of copper (in US dollars). © Source: Les Echos 
Uncertainties
Standard & amp; Poor’s also notes the uncertainty about the next elections in the country.
“The cost, organizational difficulties and possible challenge by the opposition of the various elections scheduled this year is in our opinion a risk to notes, “wrote the rating agency, which is particularly concerned about the” how these will be financed [...] given the limited sources of funding from the government and the reluctance of donors to bring the money to organize the elections. “
” political uncertainty and the lack of visibility regarding the elections in 2016 could
cause unrest could destabilize the institutions and the economy, “says S & amp; P
All of which justifies in his eyes the negative outlook associated with the country’s rating
Growth
<.. p> the rating agency, however, said that the country’s GDP growth remains strong, although slightly down: it is expected around 7% between 2016 to 2019, against 7.7% in 2015 and 9, . 5% in 2014
Finally, the country’s debt – which benefited in 2010 from a debt reduction under the HIPC initiative. – rest measured
the debt of the DRC is expected at 17.1% of GDP in 2016 against 17.6% in 2015. however, it should increase gradually to reach 21% of GDP in 2019 “to finance budget and current account deficits” however, warns S & amp; P
Joel Tee-Lessia. <- - end wysiwyg happy!>
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