The macroeconomic outlook for Gabon are fewer long-term reassuring. For the second time in just one year, Standard & amp; Poor’s, the US rating agency degrade the sovereign rating of Gabon, it changes from “B +” to “B” with bonds “highly speculative.”
“ The oil price decline has substantial impact on the external and fiscal balances Gabon and on its prospects for growth given its strong dependence Oil “was to know in February 2015 Standard & amp; Poor’s in its forecasts. At the same time, the agency had revised the sovereign rating of Gabon in foreign currency and local currency from “BB-” to “B +”. In the space of one year, this note has again be lowered. It goes from “B +” to “B” with bonds country “highly speculative”
The prolonged situation of the oil market (decline of oil prices and local decline in oil production) is the main cause. Indeed, oil contributes 50% to the state budget. In the current situation, combined with other endogenous factors such as the debt is growing (37.6% in 2016 against 37.5% in 2015 according to forecasts), it is not obvious that the economic situation of Gabon improves soon as this requires a rigorous public governance.
Weather
“ We expect real GDP growth will slow but remain at an average level of 4.5% in 2016-2019, mainly due to lower oil prices and the continued decline in crude oil production is expected to decrease by about 7% in 2016-2017 due the maturing of existing oil fields , “says Standard & amp; Poor’s.
The rating agency also expects a deficit of around 1% in 2016 against -1.5% in 2015, a deterioration in the current account balance of Gabon ( 3.8% of GDP against 3% in 2015) because of the particular conditions recorded by the oil market. Despite this gloomy omen, the Gabonese authorities are serene about the future. They rest their hopes on budget adjustments initiated in 2014, which should extend to a resolution of the crisis in the global oil industry
Author: 3M |. Source: Gaboneco | Originally published: the 01-02-2016 at 7:09:25
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