If the extended decline in oil prices has an impact on the Gabonese economy, including macroeconomic imbalances and fiscal contraction, for the US rating agency Moody’s that crisis engulfs the national economy in a spiral judged very dangerous. According to the agency, because of the crisis, revenues of Gabon share of GDP fell by 4.5 points between 2013 and 2015
Immediate Consequences. “Deteriorating public finances” with premium lower subsidies, the fiscal deficit and an increase in financing requirements of around 10% of GDP in 2015.
Faced with these realities, in just two months, Moody’s still revising down its forecast for Gabon. To “Ba3″ before the sovereign rating of Gabon is only to “B1″. The outlook for the US Agency accompanying this note is less satisfactory. This note goes to the obligations of the category called “non-investment grade speculative” to a riskier category considered highly speculative. For the Gabonese government, there is nothing to fear. The current economic context the prevailed.
Escape?
According to the Economy Minister, Régis Immongault, “the rating agency has indeed conducted a systematic review of the ratings of all exporters of oils based on their estimate of the price of Brent crude for 2016 to $ 33. in this context, revenues from all countries oil producers fall significantly, which leads to the rating downgrade many countries including Gabon. ” For the latter, there is no to worry. Gabon has managed since 2014 to prepare for better withstand this shock, adopting conservative measures.
According to him, “the Gabonese economy is now stronger than before and can cope the new order global environment. ” This optimism, the Minister holds the relevance of long-term strategic vision of Gabon which offers the country a desirable location. But when such observations converge between rating agencies how then grasp the future?
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