Note INSEE situation: why the growth target … – Atlantico.fr

Atlantico: According to the latest monthly report from INSEE, the French economy would be able to show growth of 0.4% per quarter in the first half of 2016. According to these latest figures, the Government will he be able to reach its 1.5% growth target for the year 2016?

Nicolas Goetzmann : The attacks of 13 November led to a slowdown in consumer spending over the last weeks of 2015, which logically had the effect of seeing a postponement of purchases in January 2016. what INSEE clear:

“in France, the deadly attacks of 13 novembre.2015 in Paris and mild temperatures in autumn limited household consumption, which shrank in the fourth quarter

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in the first half 2016, these effects are almost more weigh on growth, and with the exception of the most affected by the attacks for which the recovery would be progressive positions, household consumption would rebound significantly. “

the figures in this beginning of the year are positive, but the latest developments suggest a slowdown in this trend. Thus, according to Markit institute, the retail sector, the service sector, but manufacturing, are, all three, divided into negative territory for the month of February 2016. Thus, in his note of 3 last March, Markit was less optimistic than the INSEE:

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“the french GDP therefore should again carry out only modest growth in the first quarter 2016, while the current weakness of the Employment Index leaves little hope for tangible improvements in the labor market. “

the problem for the government is that its growth forecast of 1.5% for the year 2016 can not tolerate any slippage, and that such slippage seems to be underway. The next publications will see more clearly, between a real turnaround, or a single blow against the passenger.

If the promise of reversing the curve unemployment slow to achieve, such figures they will finally see the french unemployment rate down in 2016?

taking the figures for the last 15 years, it is possible to that France succeeds in reducing its unemployment rate since its growth approaching 1.7% year term. However, forecasts for the year 2015, already vulnerable, are displayed at 1.5%. A strong inversion, and durable, the curve is already compromised. However, the last months of 2015, as well as the beginning of 2016 have been quite positive, especially in terms of job creation, this trend can continue to be reflected in the next figures will published. But this is where a slow distillation of an already past situation, the key is to focus on the current trend, which carries obvious risks of a downturn in the economic situation.

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