NOTE NEWS # 418
FOREIGN POLICY OF THE UNITED STATES: A MYSTERY?
Alain Rodier
13-01-2016
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The observers are lost in conjectures about the foreign policy of Washington, seeking to determine what is the guideline and especially what are the goals pursued in the medium and long term. An early explanation is that the US administration seems to be trapped in a world worthy of the Cold War (1945-1989).
Wrestling influence against opponents considered major
When the USSR collapsed, the Americans, victorious leaders of the free world, have felt invested with the mission (quasi divine essence) to transform the states in their image, convinced of the correctness of . their cause and universal side of M ade in USA
By a strange phenomenon, the Iron Curtain did not really collapsed; it has only been decreased eastward gradually strangling Russia by encroaching on its strategic space. Populations that were under communist tutelage since the end of World War II had finally been released from his yoke. By cons, they were generally disappointed by the free world as there were far from dream to reality. But their reaction carefully orchestrated by Washington was not to question the merits of the model of liberal society (US Trust) but accused of all evils their old Slavic masters suspected of the worst depravities, especially want to regain what they had lost at the end of the USSR. For twenty years, the task was relatively easy as Russia was weak and incapable of reaction.
The United States thought they had solved the Russian problem by having brought this country to the waist a political and military dwarf. They then resolutely turned towards China, whose development began to create their concern. Without a doubt, the future of the United States will be played around the Pacific and in Washington, that’s where you had to make an effort. Note that this idea was already popular in the years 1965-1975 and everyone remembers the test Alain Peyrefitte published in 1973: When China awakes … shake the world . We then spoke of the “yellow peril”.
The Near and Middle East, theaters that are required on the front of the stage
Near and Middle East also passed into the background of US concerns if we except of course the “war against terrorism” launched after the attacks of September 11, 2001 that had not really been included in the program. It is striking that, even after the 1998 attacks against US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, Washington continued to regard al Qaeda as a non-priority threat. It is not for lack of French services scalded by the 1995 Paris bombings to have been constantly warn, but the Americans turned a deaf ear. To permanently resolve the problems in these areas, it seemed so obvious to them that the benefits of American civilization logically follow military intervention to drive them backward and dictatorial leaders from Afghanistan and Iraq.
the rest, wishing to get rid of despots they had supported for decades to fight against the Communist International – but who had not had the good taste to withdraw in time to make way for elected successors as democratic standards become universal – the United States decided to use the Muslim Brotherhood. Curiously, they were considered “moderate” [1] Western intelligentsia in general and America in particular. And that was the time of “Arab Spring” and the resounding failure of the Syrian revolution ..
Everyone was wrong about the resilience of power to Bashar Assad. Even the Israelis, yet very aware of the situation in the Middle East, gave him only a few months of survival. It also has private agreement on the Golan since Assad wanted to get rid of this problem for all spend its resources to the fight against the rebellion. This is a great opportunity missed!
This error analysis is mainly due to the fact that the Arab Spring had brought down very quickly Tunisian and Egyptian regimes. Logically, many believed he was going to be the same Assad who was being carried away by the “sense of history” [2], especially as the United States, influenced by the thought neocon , were using their influence to ensure that this happens in this sense Admittedly liabilities between the Syrian regime and Washington was very heavy: the civil war in Lebanon in the 1980s – France also. suffered in his flesh during this troubled period -; terrorist activities fomented from Damascus to Western interests and from 2003; and supplying the rebellion in Iraq fighters.
As elsewhere, Washington thought that the Muslim Brotherhood movement was ad hoc to support the revolt. These theses were repeated with enthusiasm, especially by Hillary Clinton [3] then to business. Acting like they did in Central Europe, Ukraine and Egypt – through so-called independent foundations – the Americans then launched an operation using influence thoroughly misinformation. The most grotesque example of this was the invasion of Iraq in 2003 [4].
If the regime in Damascus has never done in lace, information relating the horrors committed by legalistic forces participate in the same processes implemented against Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein. As with any well designed disinformation professionals poisoning left from facts (plight of the Bulgarian nurses, fierce repression by the security forces, etc.) to magnify and cause opprobrium of public opinion and world political leaders against while ignoring what is happening in countries that do not really respect human rights but are indispensable allies. For example, the bombing by mistake of a school in Aleppo in Syria by Russia arouses much more reactions that the same blunder committed by the Americans on an MSF hospital in Kunduz in Afghanistan Regarding Syria George Bush had a good start work regularly associating this country to the “axis of evil” (Iraq, Iran, North Korea). It is not digested that although the Assad clan has condemned the September 11 attacks, it has not approved the US invasion of Iraq in 2003 [5]. At the time, France was also pilloried the US accused of cowardice. Yet it was necessary courage to Jacques Chirac to oppose the will of Washington. Since then, successive French leaders have visibly changed posture not to suffer the wrath of the American friend.
Are intelligence services along well?
Although in telling the legend, the US intelligence services were not blind to the Middle East in general and Syria in particular. General Martin Dempsey, Joint Chief of Staff until September 25, 2015, was well aware that the fall of the regime of Bashar al-Assad would lead the country into an indescribable chaos in which radical Islamists occupy a position dominant. Under its mandate, the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) addressed a constant flow of information warning the political power of the catastrophic developments in Syria. But the government administration simply did not want to hear the truth. According to the popular expression: “ there is none so deaf as those who will hear .” This is explained by the fact that the US administration wanted the fall of Assad as part of his vision of the reconstruction of the Middle East. Everything that was not consistent with this policy was simply rejected
The General Joseph Dunford, who succeeded Dempsey said upon taking office. “ If you want to talk to a nation that could constitute an existential threat to the United States, I will refer to Russia. If you observe behavior, it is nothing less than alarming . ” It is astonishing to see this shift worthy of the ultras of neocons that responds to a Manichean will completely humiliate Russia since the collapse of the USSR and by designating as the first opponent [ . 6]
Always Going in the desired direction by political power (in which, it is true, he owes his job), General Dunford also said about Syria: “ America must work with our Turkish partners to secure the northern border of Syria [...] we must do everything to help viable Syrian opposition forces, that is, the words “moderate” to fight extremist . ” Dunford has understood one thing: to be credible, it must go in the direction of the wind
It is yet murmur in some limited circles that President Obama is somewhat irritated by the attitude of his counterpart Recep! Tayyip Erdogan. But he stuck by the fact that Americans have a critical need of Incirlik airbase geographically well situated to carry out their political influence in the Middle East.
Erdogan, a ally bulky
Erdogan plays an extremely troubled role in Syria. Like his services, he believed that his former close friend Assad would fall very quickly after the beginning of 2011. As a close revolts of the Muslim Brotherhood – which can only please Washington as has been written previously – He decided to stake everything on the “Arab Spring” massively helping the rebels in Syria (and also in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia) without much worry about their real motives. Syrian activists and foreign volunteers have therefore found in Turkey a particularly appreciable rear base.
A little known episode, according to the Chinese authorities, the probable involvement of Turkish secret services in the delivery of voluntary China reacts to join the Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan. Some were found carrying Turkish passports. Needless to say that Beijing has been greatly angered by this behavior judged as unfriendly.
The failure of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the Syrian regime resilience, the reactions of Russia and Iran cut Erdogan short the ambition to become the leader of the Sunni Muslim world. It was probably for the Turks illusions -History oblige- do not enjoy a positive image among Arab populations. With nothing to lose, the Turkish head of state is engaged in a headlong rush, settling accounts with the Kurds who have not given him electoral support he expected following its policy of openness brutally interrupted in 2013-2015. If he tolerates the presence of Americans at Incirlik is that this is a bargaining chip against their deafening silence about its repressive policy towards Kurds, journalists are not granted him and all those who oppose him.
A less known fact is the international game continues to lead Erdogan. For example, Turkey will establish a military base in Qatar 3000 Men all expenses paid by the emirate; The latter is also committed bearing a possible gas deliveries deficit by Russia. For its part, Saudi Arabia Ankara should buy hundreds of armored vehicles. Obviously, this axis Ankara-Riyadh-Doha is intended to counter the influence of Tehran and Russia in the Middle East, which is not without satisfying Washington.
Relations with Saudi Arabia
Yet the privileged relations historically maintained by Washington with Saudi Arabia through a turbulent zone due to three factors:
– energy independence US thanks to the exploitation of shale gas; in response, Riyadh imposes cheap oil which makes shale gas and deepwater exploration much less attractive [7];
– the fact that the foreign policy of the United States turns increasingly to the Far East, Washington believing that this is where play its medium and long-term future, leaving the Middle East while maintaining protection of the State of Israel;
– the agreement on the Iranian nuclear desired by Obama with, the key, a lifting of sanctions imposed on Iran seen as the main threat by Riyadh
To answer that. the Saud consider a “encirclement” by Shiites, Riyadh intervened at the head of a coalition of Arab countries to counter the offensive of the Houthi rebels and supporters of former president Abdullah Saleh in Yemen. The situation seems fixed and Washington does not mind providing his Saudi ally various bombs that are regularly discharged on rebel-held cities. Curiously, the horrors of this war which deliberately starved by the Saudi blockade civilians on the front lines are not the “one” of the Western media who book their headlines to the Syrian drama.
The fact that Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) – the armed wing of external operations for Al-Qaeda Central – and Daesh advantage of this situation of chaos for more foothold in the country does not seem overly concerned neither Washington nor Riyadh, however designated targets both Salafi-jihadist movements. On the other hand, the reaction from the White House to the execution of 47 prisoners on January 2 – Nimr al-Nimr including a senior Shi’a cleric. – Has been more measured
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In conclusion, it seems clear that the American administration sees the international situation through a cultural and political prism that makes him deliberately ignore the realities on the ground, even when its intelligence services honestly describe him what happens . But US citizens are beginning to doubt the validity of this policy even before that moral development to justify the intervention is put to the test: Guantanamo, the abuses at Abu Ghraib, secret CIA prisons, the lies about weapons of mass destruction of Saddam Hussein … have been there. In addition, Americans feel increasingly “unloved” and do not understand why. Quite rightly, they accept less than boys get killed for causes that are by their own. This was what had allowed President Obama to be elected, promising the “take home” promise that the realpolitik did not allow him to hold.
The United States are now entered pre-election phase and there is little chance there is of great upheaval in the coming months. By cons, it might be useful that Europeans stand out a little of their partner and reconsider the bandwagon that characterizes for years.
- [1] If they waived pure violence, that does not mean they abstiennet of use and abuse of “pressure” more or less restrictive. The process is well known: a mixture of social aid (funds provided by some states like Qatar abound) for the poorest; the highlighting of a small religious bourgeoisie in exchange for membership in their vision of Islam; conditioned and votes.
- [2] The memory is what is missing most analysts. The “sense of history” quoted extensively from the Marxist-Leninists was to bring humanity to the “small morning singing” to the Soviet mode. We know what happened to that concept.
- [3] It is not officially neocon but its actions suggest that it is very close. The current neocon exceeds cleavage Democrats / Republicans.
- [4] Even before the intervention in Afghanistan in late 2001 (perfectly justified because the Taliban’s refusal to hand over bin Laden who was at the origin of attacks of September 11, 2001), the author remembers the publication in the press shots of sophisticated underground shelters built by Al-Qaeda in the Tora Bora region, assertions that proved more than fanciful.
- [5] Syria is part of the international coalition that led the Gulf War against Saddam Hussein in 1990-1991.
- [6] Although logically, Russia returns the ball by designating . NATO as the main threat
- [7] It also reduces oil revenues two suppliers not really friends Riyadh: Russia and especially Iran
Source: http://www.cf2r.org/fr/notes-actualite/la-politique-etrangere-des-etats-unis-un-mystere.php
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